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Anchoring And Adjustment - Part Deux

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Indexed  August 11, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Dan Ward posted about Gray’s Paradox. When Dan describes his experience at the Baltimore Aquarium:The truth is, the animals have it right and we’ve got it wrong. When our math indicates one thing and observation reveals somethin...(more)
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Mentions: failure    courses    monte carlo   

Anchor And Adjustment - Part Duex

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Indexed  August 10, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Dan Ward posted about Gray’s Paradox. When Dan describes his experience at the Baltimore Aquarium:The truth is, the animals have it right and we’ve got it wrong. When our math indicates one thing and observation reveals somethin...(more)
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Mentions: failure    courses    monte carlo   

Volatility Fails As A Proxy For Risk

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Indexed  July 30, 2010
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Herding Cats
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"volatility per se, be it related to weather, timing of the morning newspaper, is simply a benign statistical probability factor that tells us nothing about risk until it is coupled with a consequence," - Robert H. Jeffrey, "A New Paradigm ...(more)
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Mentions: scheduling    Risk management    portfolio    monte carlo   

Cost Estimating

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Indexed  July 23, 2010
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Herding Cats
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The discussion of estimating - cost and schedule - has produced references usable in a variety of domains. As a background here’s the guidance in the domain I work. This "mandates" an Estimate At Completion with a Best Case, Worst Ca...(more)
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Mentions: cost estimating    Risk management    monte carlo   

Anchoring And Adjustment In Estimating

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Indexed  July 17, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Josh from PMStudent.com has a post about estimating. There is a discussion of using 3 point estimates.Some time ago, I came to the conclusion that making 3 point estimates is a bad idea. Instead use confidence intervals for risk ranges and ...(more)
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Mentions: PM Body of Knowledge    failure    monte carlo   

Why Risk Analysis Is A Continuous Process

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Indexed  April 27, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Michael Hatfield conjectured that once the baseline schedule is established, risk management is just institutional worrying. I’m here to tell you that just ain’t the case on any real program. Institutional worrying sounds like a...(more)
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Mentions: Risk management    scheduling    Earned Value    monte carlo    deliverables   

Probability Versus Statistics

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Indexed  April 27, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Pat Weaver has a nice post about risk and uncertainty. Like all of Pat’s posts, he brings out an important discussion point. This one is about how to think about risk in the context of managing projects.First let me speak to the artic...(more)
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Mentions: scope    cost estimating    Risk management    Earned Value    monte carlo   

Why Risk Analysis Is A Continuous Process

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Indexed  April 23, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Michael Hatfield conjectured that once the baseline schedule is established, risk management is just institutional worrying. I’m here to tell you that just ain’t the case on any real program. Institutional worrying sounds like a...(more)
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Mentions: Risk management    scheduling    Earned Value    monte carlo    deliverables   

Probability Versus Statistics

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Indexed  April 22, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Pat Weaver has a post about risk and uncertainty. Like most of Pat’s posts, he brings out an important discussion point. This one is about how to think about risk in the context of managing projects.First let me speak to the article P...(more)
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Mentions: scope    cost estimating    Risk management    Earned Value    monte carlo   

Critical Path Obsolete? Probably Not

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Indexed  March 24, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Josh Nankivel has a post on his PMStudent site about the Critical Path. This presentation is one of those "let  me re-examine the obvious." This worth the time to watch, but it brings out several issues in the domain of project and program...(more)
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Mentions: Critical Path    scheduling    courses    monte carlo    deliverables   

Bayes Theorem For Project Managers

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Indexed  March 11, 2010
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Eight to Late
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Introduction Projects are fraught with uncertainty, so it is no surprise that the language and tools of probability are making their way into project management practice. A good example of this is the use of Monte Carlo methods to estimate ...(more)
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Mentions: monte carlo   

Estimating Credibly

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Indexed  February 8, 2010
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Better Projects
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An estimate can be generated in number of ways.One way is for all the work to be planned up front in sufficient detail to be able to know that you can assemble the target ’end-product.’ Another way is for you to use analogy, su...(more)
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Mentions: scope    courses    monte carlo   

Navy Seals Are Project Managers

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Indexed  January 30, 2010
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Herding Cats
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Dan Ward - a favorite Blogger and Author in Defense AT&L - has a nice little post about the principles of the US Navy Seals.Humans are more important than hardwareQuality is better than quantitySpecial Operations Forces cannot be mass produ...(more)
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Mentions: training    monte carlo    technology   

Reading Materials On The Road

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Indexed  January 25, 2010
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Herding Cats
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I’ve been on the road too much in the past 2 months. Between our office here in Denver and two client sites in Phoenix and Albuquerque, I’ve had time to catch up on reading. Here’s some materials that have kept my attentio...(more)
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Mentions: Risk management    monte carlo   

The Effect Of Task Duration Correlations On Project Schedules – A S>

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Indexed  December 13, 2009
By:
Eight to Late
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Introduction Some time ago, I wrote a couple of posts on Monte Carlo simulation of project tasks: the the first post presented a fairly detailed introduction to the technique and the second illustrated its use via three simple examples. The...(more)
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Mentions: monte carlo   

The Effect Of Task Duration Correlations On Project Schedules

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Indexed  December 12, 2009
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Eight to Late
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Introduction Some time ago, I wrote a couple of posts on Monte Carlo simulation of project tasks: the the first post presented a fairly detailed introduction to the technique and the second illustrated its use via three simple examples. The...(more)
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Mentions: monte carlo   

The Effect Of Task Correlations On Project Schedules – A Study Using>

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Indexed  December 11, 2009
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Eight to Late
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Introduction Some time ago, I wrote a couple of posts on Monte Carlo simulation of project tasks: the the first post presented a fairly detailed introduction to the technique and the second illustrated its use via three simple examples. The...(more)
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Mentions: monte carlo   

The Effect Of Task Duration Correlations On Project Schedules – A St>

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Indexed  December 10, 2009
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Eight to Late
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Introduction Some time ago, I wrote a couple of posts on Monte Carlo simulation of project tasks: the the first post presented a fairly detailed introduction to the technique and the second illustrated its use via three simple examples. The...(more)
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Mentions: monte carlo   

Monte Carlo Simulation Of Multiple Project Tasks – Three Examples An>

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Indexed  September 21, 2009
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Eight to Late
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Introduction In my previous post I  demonstrated the use of a Monte Carlo technique in simulating  a single project task with completion times  described by a triangular distribution.  My aim in that article was to:  a) describe a Mo...(more)
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Mentions: monte carlo   

An Introduction To Monte Carlo Simulation Of Project Tasks

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Indexed  September 12, 2009
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Eight to Late
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Introduction In an essay on the uncertainty of project task estimates,  I  described how a task estimate corresponds to a  probability distribution.  Put simply, a task estimate is actually a range of possible completion times, each ...(more)
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Mentions: monte carlo   
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